Mexico Open preview: Clark leads the way, but there’s room for a surprise

After Bermuda, the PGA Tour heads to Mexico’s Pacific coast for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. Brian Campbell returns to defend his title against a field that includes Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Corey Conners, Ben James and former champion Tony Finau. The tournament runs October 29–November 1 at Vidanta Vallarta. [PGA Tour field] [PGA Tour / FanDuel odds outlook]

The last two editions produced very different winners. Jake Knapp built a lead with spectacular scoring and then hung on. Campbell needed a playoff, a fortunate bounce and the composure to finish the job.

Both offer clues about what might work this week.

2024: Knapp built the cushion, then needed every bit of it

Jake Knapp’s opening rounds of 67, 64 and 63 put him four shots clear entering Sunday. His Saturday round included 11 birdies, giving him enough breathing room to survive a difficult finish.

He hit just two fairways in the final round but managed an even-par 71, finishing at 19 under and beating Sami Välimäki by two. The lesson was straightforward: aggressive scoring created the lead, but recovery shots and damage control protected it. Winning did not require four identical days of golf. [2024 recap]

2025: Campbell took the break—and made it count

Brian Campbell and Aldrich Potgieter finished regulation at 20 under before Campbell won with a birdie on the second playoff hole.

The memorable moment came when Campbell’s drive appeared headed out of bounds before a tree knocked it back into play. That was fortunate. What followed still required execution: he recovered, created a birdie opportunity and converted it.

Potgieter’s second-round 61 showed what power and a hot scoring day could do here. Campbell’s victory showed there was another route. Distance helps, but it does not replace keeping the ball in play and finishing around the green. [2025 recap]

What to expect this year

The event moves from its previous February slot into the fall. This year’s published scorecard lists Vidanta Vallarta at 7,337 yards, par 71, with four par 5s. Changes to the course and routing mean previous results remain useful context rather than an exact blueprint. [Official 2026 scorecard] [Organizer course preview]

My expectation is that the contenders will need to attack those par 5s and give themselves enough realistic birdie chances to keep moving. The last two winning totals—19 under and 20 under—suggest that simply avoiding mistakes is unlikely to be enough if conditions cooperate.

Clark provides the headline name. Kim, Conners, James, Johnny Keefer, Marco Penge and Doug Ghim give the field plenty of players capable of taking advantage of a scoring course. Campbell and Finau bring winning experience at this venue. Latest official updates remove Austin Smotherman, Seamus Power, Sami Välimäki and Davis Thompson from the field. [PGA Tour field] [Official field updates]

Weather: hot, humid and still worth watching

Monday’s regional forecast calls for temperatures around 89–92°F, with a chance of showers Thursday and a generally drier outlook from Friday through Sunday. Humidity could make it feel considerably warmer. [Regional forecast]

There is an important complication offshore. The National Hurricane Center expects Tropical Storm Vance to weaken, but its October 26 advisory warns of periods of heavy rain affecting western Mexico, including coastal Nayarit and Jalisco. Its track and timing remain uncertain. [National Hurricane Center]

That does not establish that tournament play will be disrupted. It does mean the pleasant-looking daily forecast deserves another check closer to Thursday. Softer conditions could reward aggressive approach play, while showers and shifting winds could change the demands.

I would not assign a morning or afternoon advantage yet. Daily wind averages cannot establish which group gets the better conditions across the opening two rounds.

The Fox Bandit card

The bet365 prices come from its published tournament markets; Potgieter’s FanDuel price is quoted in the PGA Tour’s odds outlook. These top-10 markets explicitly include ties. They are separate bets from the outright selections. [bet365 published markets] [PGA Tour / FanDuel odds outlook]

To win: Wyndham Clark

There is no sure thing in an outright market, but Clark is my strongest choice. He has three Tour wins this season, including the U.S. Open, and enough length to create opportunities here. His combination of power and winning form makes him the player I most expect to contend. The drawback is the price: at +1200, plenty of that quality is already accounted for. [PGA Tour / FanDuel odds outlook]

Dark horse: Aldrich Potgieter

This is the more speculative play. Potgieter already demonstrated his ceiling here with a 61 and a playoff appearance in 2025. I like the opportunity for his length to turn the par 5s into scoring chances. This selection rests on course fit and demonstrated upside rather than a claim that he arrives in peak form. [2025 recap]

Top 10: Corey Conners

Conners’ approach play is the attraction. He ranks 37th this season in strokes gained on approach, gaining 0.348 strokes per round. My case is that repeated good iron shots can produce enough chances for a top 10 without requiring him to win a putting contest. Converting those chances remains the concern. [Conners statistical profile]

Top 10: Tom Kim

Kim’s summer included a Scottish Open victory and a third-place finish at the U.S. Open. That gives this selection a stronger foundation than reputation alone. He has also proved capable of winning tournaments that require very low scores. At +187, however, this is a quality selection at a relatively short price. [PGA Tour / FanDuel odds outlook]

Top 10: Doug Ghim

Ghim’s green-hitting numbers make him difficult to ignore: he ranks third on Tour in greens in regulation at 72.30%. On a week when I expect birdie opportunities to matter, that is a useful starting point. He still needs to make enough putts, but I prefer backing a top 10 to asking him to finish ahead of everyone. [Ghim statistical profile]

Reporting and market snapshot: October 26, 2026. Forecasts, fields and prices may change. Selections are editorial opinions, not guaranteed outcomes.